Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Senate Race: All Eyes Look East (Ad Wars)

With the Nebraska Primary (May 13th -- get out and vote!) a mere 14 days away, all eyes turn east to see which Democrat can win over Douglas and Lancaster Counties. (i.e. Omaha and Lincoln)

Both have taken to the air with new ads this week.

Tony Raimondo decided to throw a jab at his Democratic opponent:



While Scott Kleeb choose to respond more positivly:



Both are far better ads then there original ones. It is good to see one of them taking on Johanns as the Washington politician he has become. However, while Raimondo is busy attacking Kleeb for being an "academic," Kleeb is outlining his plans as U.S. Senator; making his ad that much more effective. (Mentioning the date of the primary is a boost for him as well...)

The larger question might be, what does "academic" mean? Is he referencing Kleeb's post at Hastings College, or his extensive (and quite frankly impressive) educational resume. If it's the first then he is degrading teachers, if it's the latter then he is attacking colleges and universities.

So which is it Mr. Raimondo?

Without any real polling out, I would say the odds on favorite to win this race is Scott Kleeb. With what is sure to be a depressed Democratic Primary due to the February Presidential Caucuses, Kleeb has the clear edge with party elites and activists who will make up a large chunk of voters and volunteers.

Raimondo is playing a bad game of craps right now. Television advertisement is essential for his victory but there is no real way to target those ads at Democratic voters. He has also pulled out of the North Omaha debate giving Kleeb another positive interaction with Democratic voters.

Kleeb is opening offices in both Lincoln and Omaha with no sign of the Raimondo campaign doing the same leaving them behind in the field department as well.

Like I said, no public polling available -- but if the election were tomorrow:

Kleeb: 63%
Raimondo: 35%

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